Civil union supporters lead White House race - Democrats could win if election held today

In the long and crowded race for the White House, candidates who support civil unions are pulling ahead.

New polls by Rasmussen Reports, Quinnipiac University and others show civil union supporters Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, all Democrats, could beat their Republican rivals if the election were held today.

Clinton, in a poll of 800 likely voters done Aug. 15-16 by Rasmussen, beat Sen. John McCain of Arizona by two points and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by 11 points. Neither GOP candidate supports civil unions.

In earlier polls by Quinnipiac, NBC News and Fox News, Clinton also beat former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani by an average of five points.

Quinnipiac’s poll of 1,545 registered voters was conducted Aug. 7-13; the NBC News poll of 1,005 adults was done July 27-30; and the Fox News poll of 900 registered voters collected its data July 17-18.

Giuliani’s campaign, which has long opposed civil unions that represent “the equivalent of marriage,” told the Boston Globe this month that the GOP frontrunner backs only domestic partnerships similar to those extended to couples in New York City.

Joe Tarver of Empire State Pride Agenda said the city law, which primarily ensures benefits to the partners of public employees, does little for other gay city residents.

“Unless you’re a city employee, you don’t get much of anything except a piece of paper,” he said. “And you may or may not be in a position to use that with your employer.”

Tarver said the nation’s next president should support civil unions, if not marriage equality, and Giuliani’s stance comes up short.

“It has been disappointing to see him pivot away from some of our issues,” he said, “particularly where he stands on recognizing our families.”

Giuliani also comes up short in polls when pitted against Obama and Edwards.

Obama and Giuliani tied in this month’s Quinnipiac poll. That poll also shows Obama besting McCain by four points, while a Rasmussen poll of 1,029 likely voters conducted July 16-17 shows Obama topping Romney by nine points.

Edwards faired similarly. Quinnipiac’s poll shows him one point ahead of Giuliani and beating McCain by eight points. In last month’s Rasmussen poll, Edwards won by seven points against Romney.

Dan Pinello, a gay City University of New York government professor, said it’s unusual for early polls to so heavily favor one political party.

“Usually, you’re pitting the lead candidate of one party against the lead candidate of another party,” he said. “It seems that any Democrat is going to beat any Republican.”

But not all Democratic candidates are celebrating the early polls.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who supports marriage equality for same-sex couples, lost in a Rasmussen poll that pitted him against Giuliani. In that poll of 1,200 likely voters, conducted July 27-29, Kucinich lost by 14 points.

Despite the favorable polling for civil union supporters, Pinello noted that a win by one of those candidates could represent only a symbolic victory for gay Americans.

He said presidents have “no real power” over civil unions or marriages.

“States are the primary sources of regulation of marriage and other related issues,” Pinello said. “So at most, the president can serve as the kind of figurehead or bully pulpit person, to be a voice of inspiration for others to act.”

Activists, however, noted White House support would be a key step toward achieving expanded rights for gay couples. Solmonese said it’s therefore important that the leading candidates support civil unions.

“To me, how they move us in the direction of marriage or civil unions or the benefits that same-sex couples would like to enjoy, that is a much more comprehensive conversation,” he said. “It’s about moving public opinion.”

Tarver agreed. He said that’s why gay Americans should be working to move public opinion — because where the public goes, politicians will follow.

“I think it’s important for us to continue pushing the candidates to be for equality,” he said. “And when it comes to marriage, that means marriage equality.”